Dan Orlovsky shares shocking Fernando Mendoza, Ty Simpson NFL Draft take

In the eyes of a majority of analysts and insiders, it is basically a lock that the Las Vegas Raiders will make Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza the first overall pick of the 2026 NFL Draft.

Meanwhile, some have suggested that Alabama Crimson Tide signal-caller Ty Simpson possesses "questionable first-round talent" at best. 

Thus, some were left stunned by what former quarterback and current analyst Dan Orlovsky had to say about the two prospects during a Thursday appearance on ESPN. 

Is Fernando Mendoza an "underwhelming" prospect?

"I’m through eight games [of Mendoza game tape] now, and through eight games, you see good, but there’s a lot of underwhelming," Orlovsky explained, per Dylan Svoboda of the New York Post and Jeff Hauser of Sporting News."...I think through eight games, Ty Simpson’s tape at Alabama is significantly more impressive than Fernando Mendoza’s."

Of course, it is worth noting that Orlovsky is largely on an island regarding this take. ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. recently ranked Mendoza as the top overall prospect of this draft class, while Simpson was 25th on that list. Others have compared Mendoza to Jared Goff and said that Mendoza would be either the fourth- or fifth-best QB prospect from 2022 through this winter. 

That said, Orlovsky has a history of offering bold opinions on prospects who later look better than expected. Back in the spring of 2024, he repeatedly insisted that Jayden Daniels and not Caleb Williams was the top quarterback in the 2024 draft class. Williams was selected first overall, but Daniels went on to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. 

What worries Dan Orlovsky about Fernando Mendoza?

"If you take away the [run-pass options] and those back-shoulder fades, there’s just not a ton of big-time throws," Orlovsky added about Mendoza. "Very good decisions — I think that’s his superpower. He avoids negative plays. But when you’re talking about first pick, first pick, I’m just not there." 

Orlovsky also said he found instances when Mendoza exited clean pockets because he was "spooked" and "became a runner unnecessarily." 

In the end, it seems unlikely such film breakdowns will keep the Raiders from grabbing Mendoza on the night of April 23. Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see if others start to agree with Orlovsky's analysis over the next two months.