Can Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers Be Aces Atop the Orioles Rotation in 2026?

As with many hard-throwing pitchers, Bradish’s career path was delayed by Tommy John surgery. In 2024, he had a hybrid surgery — the regular Tommy John procedure but also had an internal brace inserted to support his recovery and rehab. He returned in about 14 months, logging six starts with an eyebrow-raising 13.22 k/9 rate. His pitch mix of fastball, sinker, slider and cutter were consistent with pre-surgery levels.

His fastball and sinker showed improved location but suffered under the Stuff+ metric. The slider and cutter — accounting for about 45% of his pitches — were well above league average. Hitters offered at pitches out of the zone at higher rates than before, and made less contact with pitches both in and out of the zone. So the excitement for Bradish is based on solid results.

But with a combined 14 starts and 71.1 IP over the last two seasons, you have to assume Bradish will be on a close watch for overuse. He may be pulled sooner than you’d think in some early season starts so the team can rely on him later in the season.

Rogers’ Breakout Potential

Whereas Bradish had outstanding results in a small sample size, Rogers pitched very well but may have been a bit lucky along the way. Overall he notched a 9-3 record, a minuscule 1.81 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP. In 109.2 IP he recorded 8.45 k/9 and walked just 2.38 batters per nine innings.

His ERA plummeted more than 3 runs from 4.92 thanks to an increased K rate and a decline walk rate. Beyond those improvements, though, was a .226 BABIP, down from .322 in 2024, and an xERA of 3.42. After a dip in velocity in 2024, he increased speed and usage of his fastball in 2025, mixing it in with a sinker, slider and change up.

Looking at his numbers, it seems as if he had some nagging injuries or discomfort in 2024 and got on track in 2025. He was a bit lucky, and his BABIP and ERA will regress closer to that 3.40 xERA. He’s never logged more than 25 starts or 133 IP in his career, so like Bradish, stretching him out over six months might be a challenge.

As with Bradish, hitters made contact less frequently last season than before, so the organization is doing something right with their starters.

Questions About Bradish and Rogers as Rotation Aces, and Speculation on the Orioles Rotation

Both pitchers have full-season question marks. Getting either arm reliably over 160 IP will be a difficult task, so watch their early season usage. Bassitt is an innings eater so he will absorb some of that responsibility and help the O’s bullpen.

My best guess here is that the Orioles will have to trade for a front-line or solid number 2 starter over the summer, around the time Bradish and Rogers might begin to tire. If either pitcher has even a minor discomfort or fatigue, expect a 2-week rest on the injured list to try to restore them to their early season levels.

Are Bradish and Rogers Fantasy Baseball Steals?

Bradish is being drafted at number 80 on average, and Rogers is the 160th selection so far in 2026 fantasy baseball drafts. While I think Bradish will produce sexier numbers, I think Rogers will hold his own and as a back-end fantasy starter could help your team more than you know.

With both pitchers, however, only assume 4 months of truly productive results. When you call their name, know you will need to backfill them with innings from other sources.

People Also Ask About Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers and the 2026 Orioles Rotation

Can Kyle Bradish be a true fantasy ace in 2026?
He has the strikeout profile and ratio upside to anchor a staff, but his season value depends on how aggressively Baltimore manages his innings.

Is Trevor Rogers’ breakout sustainable?
His command gains support mid-rotation stability, but regression from his 1.81 ERA is likely, narrowing the margin for ace returns.

Who truly leads the Orioles rotation in 2026?
Kyle Bradish projects as the ceiling play, while Trevor Rogers offers stability if ratios normalize instead of spike.

What are Kyle Bradish’s realistic 2026 projections?
Expect roughly 135-145 IP with mid-3.00 ERA potential and strong strikeout totals if usage trends upward.

What is Trevor Rogers’ 2026 fantasy draft value?
A 140+ IP season with a low-4.00 ERA and 120-130 strikeouts makes him viable, but not immune to correction.

How does Chris Bassitt impact their value?
Bassitt stabilizes innings volume, which may allow the Orioles to manage Bradish and Rogers conservatively rather than push them.