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Justin Verlander Signs with Detroit Tigers: Fantasy Baseball 2026 Impact and Projections
Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

Justin Verlander Signs with Detroit Tigers: Fantasy Baseball 2026 Impact and Projections

Originally posted on Athlon Sports  |  By Rick Wolf  |  Last updated Feb 10, 2026 5:12 PM ET

Normally a deal for a 42 year-old athlete to go back to his original team seems ceremonial. In this case, the Detroit Tigers shelled out $13 million dollars for a one-year deal for a player who was 4-11 last season. This is the same team that ONLY offered Tarik Skubal, the reigning Cy Young award winner, $19 million in his arbitration case.  A real Will Smith in the face!

Well, maybe not with $11 million deferred.

Justin Verlander had a second baby in June 2025 with swimsuit model Kate Upton (no relation to Justin or B.J.). I thought he would ride off to fatherhood and well …

Verlander is a 3-time Cy Young winner and has been top 10 in the voting 10 times. It has only had one year in the last five years with more than a 4.00 ERA. He has been “serviceable.”

The Tigers paid $13 million. Is Verlander worth it? What does it mean to your draft rankings?

Does the Signing Make Sense for Detroit?

The rotation in Detroit is solid with or without Verlander. Tarik Skubal and Framber Valdez are both left-handed. John Flaherty and Casey Mize are both right-handed so Justin Verlander would complete that rotation and allow the Tigers to alternate when they face opponents.

Many say that it will inject energy into the fans. I don’t buy that. He hasn’t pitched for Detroit in a decade. He had two Cy Young Awards with Houston since then and when he goes into the Hall of Fame, it will be difficult to understand which cap he will wear.

His presence and competitiveness will be welcomed to a team that can compete for a championship. He is also solid depth behind the two aces.

Verlander’s 2025 Recap and What It Means

Justin Verlander’s 2025 workload confirms durability, but declining strikeout volume caps his fantasy relevance.D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

There are a couple of things to take from last year’s performance. He pitched 152 innings. He was injured in 2024 and struggled. It looked like the end, but 150-160 innings is the maximum that can be expected from the former Cy Young Award winner.

He posted 3.85 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 137 K in 152 IP with Giants. He still has his velocity, 94 MPH. He had a good FpK at 61% and SwK of 11.3, but he walked too many hitters with 52 walks. In 2023, he had good skills but they were really erratic. He does also allow a ton of fly balls. When the wheels come off, “uh oh.”

2026 Fantasy Projections and Draft Value

Justin Verlander projects as a late-round innings filler with wins tied more to team strength than personal dominance.Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Let’s do a straight projection on him. At 43, he has to have a 20% downturn in the skills based and endurance based components.

So, let’s say with Reese Olson in the 6th rotation spot that he sees 22 starts to stay sharp for his post-season work potentially out of the pen. That means that he gets around 120 innings. With an 8 k/9 rating, that means about 105 strikeouts. If we are generous and give him a 4.00 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP as he walks too many, he is almost undraftable.

Conclusion

Justin Verlander’s ADP is 613. In a 15-team league that is undrafted by over 200 picks. There are so many other choices for your fantasy baseball team that you should be looking elsewhere.

Playing with the Tigers, he will win 10 of those starts so from a wins standpoint that is the only thing you can bank on. Also, we make the pronouncement that this game is for fun, so you should play it like that. If you are a Tigers’ fan of a certain age where his 13 years with the club mean something to you, then you should draft him in your last pitcher spot so that you can have more fun if he finds the fountain of youth.

For fantasy baseball value for the more serious players, you need to avoid Justin Verlander.  When playing with the SMART system, every pick has to have upside, not Upton.  There is an Upton with Justin, but no upside.  Don’t draft a 43-year-old in his 21st season playing for the team that drafted him in 2004 which is the same year that Jackson Holiday was born.  

Baseball is Life.

People Also Ask About Justin Verlander

What is Justin Verlander’s 2026 contract with the Tigers?
He signed a one-year, $13 million deal with $11 million deferred, beginning in 2030.

How many innings will Verlander pitch in 2026?
Most projections place him in the 120-140 inning range if healthy.

Is Justin Verlander a good fantasy pick in 2026?
He profiles as a late-round depth option, useful for innings and moderate strikeouts.

Who is in the Tigers rotation for 2026?
Tarik Skubal, Framber Valdez, Justin Verlander, Jack Flaherty, and Casey Mize headline the group.

Did Justin Verlander play for the Tigers before?
Yes, he spent his first 13 MLB seasons with Detroit from 2005-2017.

What was Verlander’s ERA in 2025?
He posted a 3.85 ERA over 152 innings.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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