May 6, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; A detailed view of a Baltimore Orioles hat and glove in the dugout against the Atlanta Braves in the first inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Orioles Bold Prediction Would Set Rays Back Even More in AL East Race

Originally posted on Tampa Bay Rays on SI
By Kenneth Teape | Last updated Jan 27, 2026 7:00 AM ET

The Tampa Bay Rays, based on how they operate normally, have been quite active this winter when it comes to their roster.

They have been involved in plenty of deals, signing free agents and making trades. Veteran outfielder Cedric Mullins and left-handed pitcher Steven Matz were both signed, along with retaining outfielder Jake Fraley after he was non-tendered.

Three major trades were also completed. The first was a three-team deal that included the Pittsburgh Pirates and Houston Astros. The Rays parted ways with second baseman Brandon Lowe, outfielder Jake Mangum and right-handed pitcher Mason Montgomery while bringing back two prospects: outfielder Jacob Melton and right-handed pitcher Anderson Brito.

In their next deal, with the Baltimore Orioles, right-handed pitcher Shane Baz was the centerpiece. Tampa Bay received a haul of prospects and a draft pick from its American League East rivals.

Framber Valdez going to Orioles would be huge blow to Rays

Most recently, they addressed the need at second base, acquiring Gavin Lux from the Cincinnati Reds in a three-team deal that saw outfielder Josh Lowe heading to the Los Angeles Angels.

There are a lot of moving parts, but a real argument can be made that the Rays are in a worse spot now than when the 2025 season ended when it comes to their roster. A lineup in need of offensive punch has been weakened, and depth is still needed in the starting rotation.

To make matters worse, their divisional competition has improved. The Orioles, who finished in the cellar last season, are poised to make a return to the postseason with the moves made already this winter.

Alas, they may not be done. As if things weren’t bad enough for Tampa Bay fans watching the team’s biggest rivals run circles around them when it comes to spending, a new bold prediction would be more salt in the wound.

MLB insider Jeff Passan of ESPN has shared some predictions about where the biggest free agents remaining will land. He believes Baltimore is going to win the offseason, landing left-handed starting pitcher Framber Valdez to cap off their free agency haul.

Rays would have massive gap to close with Orioles adding Valdez

The Orioles already signed first baseman Pete Alonso and relief pitcher Ryan Helsley away from the New York Mets. Look to continue shoring up their starting rotation, Zach Eflin was re-signed, in addition to acquiring Baz. Outfielder Leody Tavares was also signed.

With $195 million already committed to free agents, Passan believes Baltimore will add to that total, signing Valdez to something around a six-year, $180 million deal.

If the Orioles weren’t viewed as a better team than the Rays already based on their offseason moves, adding Valdez to the mix would almost certainly cement that.

He would give the team another front-end arm to go along with Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish, further upgrading what was easily the team’s biggest weakness in 2025. It would be bad news for a Tampa Bay team that was already lacking offensively and struggled against southpaws last year.