Top Notes From the Giants’ ZiPS Projections for 2026

In a division where you’re automatically competing for second if you’re not named the Dodgers, the San Francisco Giants are looking to sneak into a wild-card spot in 2026. While they didn’t have the splashy offseason that fans may have wanted, they made some solid, complimentary moves to support their offensive core.

The pitching will be the difference maker of this ball club, though. Logan Webb is one of the best starters in baseball, but outside of him, this staff is full of uncertainty. Thankfully, there are projection models that give us an idea of what we can expect from any given player heading into 2026.

One of the most widely used models is the ZiPS Projection System, which was created by Dan Szymborksi of FanGraphs. According to MLB.com, here’s how it works:

“ZiPS uses growth and decline curves based on player type to find trends. It then factors those trends into the past performance of those players to come up with projections… no one is claiming that every ZiPS prediction will come true, but it is widely regarded as one of the most accurate predictors in the industry.”

Let’s take a look into some of the most notable takeaways from this year’s ZiPS projections for the San Francisco Giants.

Position Players

• Rafael Devers shines in his first full season in San Francisco – While it took him awhile to get going, Devers showed Giants fan exactly what to expect from him for the majority of the next decade. Hitting 20 home runs, driving in over 50 runs, and maintaining a walk rate close to 15% will excite a fan base.
  
  The Giants’ front office is likely treating Devers’ first full season like a free-agent acquisition in itself. Projections of a .257/.356/.474 slash line with 30 home runs and a 130 wRC+ would be exactly what San Francisco has been fishing for in free agency all these years.
  
  Devers would give the Giants a second consecutive year with a 30 home run hitter after not having one for north of two decades. His 2.9 projected wins above replacement seems a bit low considering the fact that he’ll be returning to a defensive position (first base) the majority of the time.
  

• Luis Arráez returns to form – It’s no secret that 2025 was a down year for Arráez, despite posting a minuscule strikeout rate of 3.1%. It was the first time his batting average dipped below .300 since 2021 and the lowest on-base percentage of the 28-year-old’s career by nearly 20 points.
  
  Fortunately for San Francisco, ZiPS does not see this becoming a trend for Arráez. While he’ll likely be a poor defender returning to second, the projected fWAR of 2.1 would be the third-highest mark of his career. Not to mention, a batting average of .311 would definitely be welcome to a team that finished 25th in baseball in that department.
  

• Is there more of a backup catcher battle than we think? – Daniel Susac looks like the frontrunner to be the backup to Patrick Bailey on Opening Day. He’s had a nice start to the spring and was taken in the Rule 5 Draft, which helps his odds.
  
  However, ZiPS says that the Giants should think a bit harder about that choice. Jesús Rodríguez is a fresh face in the Giants organization after coming over at the trade deadline last year. At the same time, he’s projected to be one of the team’s more consistent hitters.
  
  Defensively, Susac appears to be far ahead of Rodríguez, which Buster Posey and the Giants do value. However, there is a case — offensively — that last year’s trade acquisition should get a real shot. Here’s how their projections for 2026 stack up against each other.