When Should the White Sox Turn the Rotation Over to Their Top Prospects?

Health remains the biggest question for Schultz, who could absolutely dominate early this season at his best. Injuries derailing two of his three full professional seasons is suboptimal, but he’s still 22 years old and the top arm in this farm system.

He’ll need at least a couple of months to build up and show success at the highest level on MiLB, but nobody in the current rotation will stop him from claiming a spot in the second half of the year. Sometime midseason feels likely for Schultz, but waiting until late in the year to maintain rookie eligibility for 2027 is not off the table.

Hagen Smith is the other half of this highly-touted duo of left-handers. Drafted fifth overall in 2024 by Chicago, Smith was tabbed as the pitcher potentially most capable of soaring through the minor league ranks after winning National Pitcher of the Year at Arkansas.

His first professional season was rockier than expected after being sent straight to Double-A Birmingham to open the year. Granted, Smith was very rarely hit hard. The challenges came more in the form of command and a marginal decrease in stuff quality.

Smith posted a 3.57 ERA and 3.69 FIP, while striking out 34% of batters on the year. The deception of his delivery and arm path proved to be effective against the best of minor league hitters. However, a 17.6% walk rate and frequent occurrences of his velocity dipping to the low-to-mid 90s did spark a degree of concern.

Heading to the Arizona Fall League in October allowed Smith to hone his craft and finish the year on a high note.

“I worked through things I needed to work on after the year. It felt really good, trying to carry that over [into the spring],” said Smith on his AFL experience.

Throughout college, Smith was able to dominate with largely just two pitches, his fastball and slider. Incorporating the changeup into his arsenal has been a point of emphasis for him and will continue to be a key one.

“Trying to throw the changeup a lot. Trying to kill velo on it, get it into the 88-90 range and be able to throw strikes,” said Smith.

Everything, including the changeup, was working for Smith when I was able to watch some live at-bats of his against top prospect Caleb Bonemer and Jaden Fauske.

Smith sitting at 97.1 mph and topping at 98.7 mph was extremely encouraging to see at the end of February, but it was just 20-25 pitches after all.

Likely on a similar trajectory as Schultz, it would not be surprising to see Smith as soon as June or as late as September, depending on how he handles his first taste of Triple-A.

Tanner McDougal is the final member of this trio, and he broke out in a massive way last season between High-A and Double-A.

He isn’t quite the same mold as the pair of first-round picks, as McDougal was not even considered to be a top-30 prospect in the system by many at this time last year.

You can read a full breakdown of McDougal’s emergence below, but he has gone from afterthought to the first name up among these pitchers. After being selected to the 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5 Draft, McDougal is on track to be the first pitching prospect to debut this season.

Given that he’s already hitting 101 mph and showing out at big league camp while being on the 40-man roster, McDougal could viably reach Chicago as soon as April.

It’s likely Chicago will wait at least 16 days rather than putting him on the Opening Day roster, but he’s very likely to be the first pitching prospect to join the team this season.

Returning From Injuries

The White Sox have several other potential rotation pieces beyond that trio, a few who are returning from their group of seven arms that underwent surgery last offseason or spring training.

Drew Thorpe is the most well-known name of this group, as he made nine starts in 2024 for Chicago after being the headliner of the Dylan Cease trade with San Diego.

He’s the pitcher in this group with the most clear path to grabbing a rotation spot once healthy, but is the one who has dealt with setbacks in his recovery. He was shut down from bullpens in early February, but did return to a fastballs-only bullpen this week.

Thorpe will need a couple of months of ramp-up given his current status, likely followed by a lengthy rehab stint in Charlotte. He could still factor into the rotation come June or later, but he will be facing a lot more competition for a spot in the rotation.

The potential of McDougal, Schultz, or Smith being deployed as a reliever for health or innings limit reasons could open up a spot for Thorpe down the stretch.

Mason Adams likely would have debuted in 2025 after an excellent year in 2024, but he underwent surgery last spring.

A higher-floor profile with limited upside, Adams has the plus command and arsenal versatility to be a back-end rotation piece for Chicago in a future rotation that will feature plenty of high-octane stuff.

He has been throwing bullpens in Arizona and is expected to start facing live batters in April. Given that he’s coming off an injury and had limited Triple-A experience before the surgery, Adams will likely spend a few months in Charlotte. The second half of the season feels most likely at this rate for Adams.

Ky Bush reached Chicago briefly in 2024, like Thorpe, as he made four starts for the White Sox towards the end of the season. He cruised through Double-A that year, but didn’t get the chance to settle into the bigs.

With a crowded group of arms here, Bush’s left-handed profile could potentially shift into a bullpen as the organization could use help from the left side there.

More Names To Watch

• David Sandlin came over from the Red Sox in a trade this offseason. The 25-year-old pitched to a 3.61 ERA with a 25.4% strikeout rate in Double-A, but struggled in his first taste of Triple-A. He’ll likely spend much of the year there, but could potentially reach the bigs before Schultz or Smith due to his experience and already being on the 40-man roster.
• Christian Oppor became a huge breakout last year within the organization as the left-hander showed out in his first season of affiliated ball following a year of development at the complex. The 21-year-old is set to spend the majority of the season in Double-A and is not expected to debut until 2027, but there’s always a chance for someone with his caliber of stuff.
• Shane Murphy dominated Double-A with elite command last season. He was one of the best pitchers in MiLB and is very aware of his style of pitching, but does have a seemingly capped ceiling as he tops out around 91 mph. He could make in line for some spot starts or long relief work this season.

2026 Season Outlook

The starting rotation does not indicate the future of this pitching staff as we enter the 2026 season. While Shane Smith and potentially Sean Burke can still be part of said future, the attention will soon shift from veterans to these young arms.

It’s hard to bank on a rotation of three or four rookies, but that may be the reality by the time we reach August for the Sox. We could see at least a few of the names mentioned earn a spot in the rotation throughout the year.

Heading into 2027, this rotation will look quite different and could be as or more exciting than the current lineup is right now.