Sean Payton's failed fourth-down call in AFC Championship Game loss proves analytics shouldn't always be trusted

Why Sean Payton should've kicked a field goal instead of going for it on fourth down

In June 2002, Cal-Berkeley economics professor David Romer wrote a paper titled "It's Fourth Down and What Does the Bellman Equation Say?" Using the Bellman equation — which assesses risk and reward — Romer concluded coaches should go for it on fourth-and-4 far more often.

Many have since heeded his advice. Coaches like Dan Campbell (Detroit Lions) and Ben Johnson (Chicago Bears) often roll the dice on fourth-and-short. However, they're usually doing so with their starting QB. 

New England knew Stidham — who hadn't started since the 2023 season — may not be prepared for this situation and took advantage of it. Instead of playing against the run on the fourth down, the Patriots defended the pass, catching the backup QB off guard.

Payton didn't prepare for that. He initially called a run but thought the Patriots would expect him to do so. The coach then called a timeout and changed the play.

"I wish I'd stayed with the initial play call," Payton told ESPN's Seth Wickersham postgame. "The look they showed on film, and the look we saw, wasn't the look we got." 

Analytics gurus were split on Payton's decision. On social media, the bot of data analyst Ben Baldwin shared the Broncos should've kicked the field goal. Meanwhile, ESPN's Seth Walder wrote: "If you kick in that spot might as well pack it in and go home." 

Regardless, you don't need a PhD to know Payton probably made a mistake. Anyone with common sense should recognize the fourth down was a turning point in the game and may have cost the Broncos a shot at their fourth Super Bowl title.