The dangerous game of tanking, give Villeneuve his look, and still buying: Leaflets

If there was any optimism left about the Toronto Maple Leafs’ season, it should have disappeared late Thursday night in Seattle. Now ten points back of the final wild card spot with 28 games remaining, the Leafs have just a 2.5% chance of making the playoffs according to MoneyPuck.

The question of whether or not the Leafs should be trade deadline sellers has been answered, the question shifts to how many players should be shipped out and who? Other questions about what needs to be done to right the direction of the ship need to be asked and as the NHL grinds to a halt in the coming days, hearing from Keith Pelley seems like a necessity.

Here are some other thoughts on the current state of the Leafs:

Kessel trade flashbacks

On the plus side, the Maple Leafs learned from the Phil Kessel situation and actually put a protection on the first round pick they traded to the Bruins in order to acquire Brandon Carlo. The downside, it was only a top five pick protection and where the Leafs are sitting today, they have once again handed the Bruins a top ten selection in the upcoming draft. Couple that with the emergence of Fraser Minten and the fact that Carlo has given the Leafs absolutely nothing, it is becoming painfully clear that Toronto should never make another trade with Boston again.

That said, if the Leafs sell aggressively enough at the trade deadline and potentially shut down some banged up players for the remainder of the season, it’s entirely possible that the Leafs could take a run at the bottom five spots in the NHL. Right now, they are seven points ahead of the Rangers who presently hold that distinction.

The problem is, they won’t be Vancouver bad. The teams below the Leafs in the standings are largely going to be running the sell off, shutdown playbook as well and that is going to make it a near impossibility of falling that low in the standings. And if the Leafs do manage to finish with the 4th or 5th worst record in the league, they still need to survive the draft lottery not bumping them any lower.

The reality is the Bruins are going to get a pick that could have been a game changer for the Leafs and that sucks. Arguably, it should be a fireable offence for Brad Treliving. But reality is that tanking is too risky and the Leafs are better off being sellers and getting players healthy for next season but still making as competitive a push as possible with the limited resources they have. If they are going the season ending surgery route with anyone, they would be wise to commit to that early. They would be wise to take contracts back in their deals that can help round out roster that should also include players motivated to make their case for spots in the Leafs lineup in 2026-27.

Leafs need to know what they have

The Maple Leafs have some pretty bare cupboards when it comes to prospects. A decade of strong regular seasons and aspirational post seasons will do that. And while the Leafs don’t have a ton of prospects that the Leafs can push into the lineup, there are a few players that curiosity should exist around.

Jacob Quillan and Henry Thrun have been getting their cups of coffee on occasion with the Leafs. The post Olympic break should involve a more serious look for each of these players. Quillan looks like he could be a potential fourth line energy option for next season that controls cost nicely and spending around $1M on a fourth liner rather than paying the multi-million dollar contract for someone like Scott Laughton allows the Leafs to address the more significant challenges higher up in the depth chart instead of continuing to pay premiums for depth.

Henry Thrun is someone the Leafs need to make a decision on by the summer. Is he worth extending? You need to play him to find out and little risk comes with taking Simon Benoit, Dakota Mermis, and Philippe Myers out of the mix so the Leafs can look at a player the Sharks once seemed quite high on.

A player like Benoit-Olivier Groulx on the Marlies is another player that the Leafs should be curious about as a cheap depth option. He’s consistently delivered at the AHL level and giving him a look at a low risk time in the Leafs season might establish if he too can be a bottom of the roster solution next year allowing the Leafs to be more aggressive about pursuing top end talent.

William Villeneuve is the player the Leafs should be most curious about and while his numbers have dipped since his stronger start to the season, Villeneuve as a 23 year old pending restricted free agent that happens to be a puck moving right shot defenceman is someone worth exploring at the NHL level. While Noah Chadwick might be the defensive prospect the Leafs are most excited about on the Marlies, his age buys the Leafs a bit more time. Villeneuve on the other hand is someone the Leafs need a full assessment on before the summer and is likely to give the Leafs at least what they have been receiving from Philippe Myers.

The rest of this season needs to involve preparing for the 2026-27 season and beyond. The Leafs won’t be doing themselves any favours by leaning on players they know they need to move on from.

Selling in order to buy

Using the current iteration of the New York Rangers as an example of doing something right seems like a flawed premise, but last year as they were selling off Jacob Trouba, Reilly Smith, and Ryan Lindgren, they also brought in J.T. Miller and Will Borgen with the intention of them playing meaningful roles on their team.

The Leafs shouldn’t be buyers in the rental trade market, that’s fairly obvious, but bringing in under contract assets and using the trade deadline to get a job start on the offseason wouldn’t be a bad thing.

Setting aside for the moment that the Maple Leafs likely don’t have the assets to land someone like Elias Pettersson out of Vancouver, ignoring impact options that are available would be a misstep, and in a more cost controlled attainable realm of additions, looking at players like Jesperi Kotkaniemi or Shane Wright are players that not only come with skill and upside, but meet the Leafs need to bring in younger options as opposed to their increasingly slow group of 30+ year olds on the team.

Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas are a couple of other noteworthy players who have their names out there although it’s hard to see a direct match with the Blues unless the Leafs are flipping futures from other deals to find a fit.

Given how stagnant free agency was last summer it feels like a missed opportunity to sit out a time when good players are being made available and as clubs like the Avalanche, Panthers, and Golden Knights have proven, teams with aggressive GMs seem to thrive more than their risk averse peers.