ATP Indian Wells Best Bets Including Carlos Alcaraz vs Cameron Norrie

The ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells quarterfinals continue with two blockbuster clashes. Defending champion Draper faces red-hot Medvedev, who is riding a long winning streak, while unbeaten Alcaraz takes on former champion Norrie. With form, fatigue, and head-to-head history all in play, there are some interesting value angles to consider.

ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells quarterfinals

Draper – Medvedev: 13.03.2026 01:00 CEST
H2H: 0-1

Jack Draper has won four of his last five matches. He is the defending champion here. Last season, Draper defeated Rune in the final in straight sets. This week in Indian Wells, the Brit defeated Bautista-Agut in the opening match in three sets, after losing the opening set 3-6. In the third round, Draper defeated Cerundolo in straight sets. He trailed 0-2 in the second set, but turned it around. In the 1/8-Finals, the Brit defeated Djokovic in three tight sets, after losing the opening set 4-6.

Daniil Medvedev has won eight straight matches. Last week in Dubai, Medvedev won the ATP 500 title. He was the finalist here twice and has yet to win the title. This week, the Russian defeated Tabilo in the opening match in straight sets. He offered no breakpoints. In the third round, Medvedev demolished Baez in straight sets. He offered and saved four breakpoints. Michelsen stood no chance against the Russian in the 1/8-Finals. Medvedev dominated in both sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Medvedev is the slight favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He dominated for the past two weeks. Draper had a three-set thriller against Djokovic and will be exhausted coming into this matchup. We expect Medvedev to prolong his winning streak.

That being said, Medvedev winning is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Daniil Medvedev winning @1.57 @bet365

Alcaraz – Norrie: 13.03.2026 03:00 CEST
H2H: 5-3

Carlos Alcaraz has won seventeen straight matches. He has yet to lose a match this season. This week in Indian Wells, the Spaniard demolished Dimitrov in the opening match in straight sets. He offered and saved only one breakpoint. However, in the second round, Alcaraz lost the opening set against Rinderknech, but turned the match around. After losing his serve at the beginning of the second set, Alcaraz stepped up his level and dominated until the end. In the 1/8-Finals, the Spaniard won against Ruud in straight sets, without offering any breakpoints.

Cameron Norrie has won three of his last five matches. He was the champion here in 2021. This week, the Brit defeated McDonald in the opening match in straight sets. Besides losing his serve once, Norrie dominated on his serve. In the third round, Norrie upset de Minaur in straight sets. He was great under pressure, saving six out of seven breakpoints. The Brit defeated Hijikata in the 1/8-Finals in straight sets easily. He offered and saved only one breakpoint.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Alcaraz is the heavy favourite in this matchup, but we partially disagree. Norrie defeated him three times already. Last season in Paris, the Brit won in three tight sets. We expect him to keep this match close.

That being said, Norrie covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Cameron Norrie +5.5 games handicap @1.91 @bet365